Censuses During this Pandemic and China’s Demographic Crisis

This article discusses numbers for this is what census is all about – numbers. More importantly, it discusses how these numbers affect people’s lives. So, brace yourself for this number-filled article.

It’s census time in Canada. We are reminded of this daily through ads on tv and on social media like Facebook. I filled up mine online and sent it on the same day that I received the questionnaire. Unlike the 2016 census wherein religion was not asked, this year’s questionnaire saw the re-appearance of this issue.

Census in Canada is conducted every five years to determine the demographic distribution of the country which will help plan the healthcare, education, and transportation needs of each province and territory.  As well, for proper allocation of funds, it determines the number of Members of Parliament for each of the 10 provinces and 3 territories. There are over 38 million people in Canada as of 2020, 14.7 million alone in Ontario with 6.2 million residing in the capital city of Toronto. With 24,920 pandemic deaths and counting, Canada will be reporting a slightly reduced population in this year’s census.

My old country, Republika ng Pilipinas, famously known as the Philippines, has been conducting its census every 5 years since 1970. Its last was in 2020 and registered 109,581,078 inhabitants. Pandemic deaths are 18,821 and counting. The Philippines is about 99.56% the size of Italy which has 62.4 million people. However, Italy’s pandemic deaths are horrific- 124,000 – compared to the Philippines’ Covid casualties. Tragically, Italy became the epicentre of this virus in Europe during the first wave. I’m almost inclined to believe that hot weather contributes to the low numbers in the Philippines but then, there’s India which is currently experiencing deaths with the second wave surge, 262,000 to date. India is hot and humid like the Philippines and has a population of 1.366 billion, rather close to China’s 1.398 billion, both numbers were taken in 2019. It was to have its census this year but with the Covid deaths in the country resulting from the second wave, indiatvnews.com reports that census will take place next year to continue on to 2023.

The US counts its population every ten years. Known as the Decennial US Census or Population and Housing Census, it counts every resident in the country, the most recent being in April 2020. Its current population is 332,680,263. The numbers collected every decade determine the number of seats of each state in the House of Representatives to enable the proper distribution of federal funds to local communities. In his April 26th, 2021 post at the Brookings Education website, William H. Frey cited a slow growth of 7.4% in the US population since 1790, but slightly higher than the number in 1930 when there was the Great Depression. As the population continues to age, the article mentioned an increase in immigration to keep the growth from sliding all the more down.

In her article in the New York Times dated May 11, 2021, entitled “China’s ‘Long-Term Time Bomb’. Falling Births Stunt Population Growth”, Sui-Lee Wee discussed the results of the 2020 China census on its 1.41 billion residents. She noted the slow growth in population since 2010 when residents in China were last counted – 72 million, the narrowest increase since 1953 when the Communist Party started counting China’s people. Moreover, she noted that only 12 million babies were born in 2020, the 4th year in a row that births have fallen. With these figures, China’s future as a contender in the world’s largest economy is proving to be quite a challenge for the country. It has never been a secret that its asset is its population which has provided labour to propel the country into the world of capitalism, thus, making it competitive with the US which has the largest economy. Beijing is now facing pressure to review its family planning policy which started with one child and moved to two children with unthinkable consequences when the family decides to have more than two. People age. This is one fact of life we can never escape. China’s population is ageing and births are falling. Its economic model has always been reliant on a robust population that can provide labour and now, it’s looking at the demographics of the census and feels compelled to address its family planning policy, healthcare and pension programs. Some employers have resorted to using robots in their factories. The 21st century changed Chinese social attitudes promulgated by an improvement in living conditions in the country. Much as I hate to say this, China’s demographic problems are self-inflicted. There are more single men now than women willing enough to provide the necessary boost through births to the population in China. Its image in the world is somewhat smeared by recent events. It has been flexing its muscle in Southeast Asia with its reclamation of HK, its threats to Taiwan and its defiance of The Hague ruling on the claims in the South China Sea. Since March 2020, it has been denying that Wuhan is the source of COVID 19. Transparency has always been lacking in the Chinese government. The issue of Uyghurs is proving to be a sticky thorn in its relationship with the international community. It is worrisome when we watch these events unfold in the media. I am particularly saddened by what has been happening in the West Philippine Sea which I watched in YouTube under the caption Defending Philippine Sovereign Rights in the West Philippine Sea. To date, this has been viewed 545,000 times. I am, after all, a Canadian with Filipino roots.

One thing is certain with these censuses. The counts will be lower. Cause: COVID 19 deaths. The numbers are very fluid because the pandemic is still ongoing; the virus, still raging in countries like India and Brazil. Even Ontario’s strict stay-at-home order has been extended to June 2nd. Countries like Canada, the US which took a hit during this pandemic, the Philippines which has been in an endless carousel of lockdowns, and China most certainly will report lower numbers in their censuses. To date, the COVID deaths are as follows:  US, 584,780; Italy, 124,000; Canada, 24,920; China, 4,636; Philippines, 18,821; India, 262,000. It should be noted that China has the least Covid fatalities but faces a future challenge with its declining population.

When this pandemic became official, my only goal in life became a personal campaign to survive it. And I’m close to achieving this goal. Right now, I’m waiting to be vaccinated with my second dose of Pfizer.