English Politics

New Canadian Politics poll; a look at the Conservative Party’s challenge: growing support

EnglishItalianPortugueseSpanishGermanDutchFilipinoPolishChinese (Simplified)ArabicBengaliGreekTurkishKoreanJapanesePersianRomanian A new poll on Canada’s political environmentbased on survey of 2,000 Canadians conducted on Wednesday, is out.
The Conservative Convention began on Thursday, and an update on Conservative Party supporters and the path to victory is available at https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-party-canada-gap/.
 
Summary:

  1. The federal Liberals lead the Conservatives by four seats, with the NDP remaining unchanged.
  2. Liberals have 33 seats, Conservatives have 29, and the NDP has one.
  3. On a regional basis, we see a close three-way race in British Columbia, broad Conservative leads in the Prairies, a 13-point Liberal lead in Ontario, a 7-point Liberal lead over the PQ in Quebec, and a 21-point Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada. 
  4. “Essentially nothing has changed since the last survey, indicating that we may be entering a period in which political opinions remain stable, particularly as the risk of a third COVID wave rises and the public focuses on the consequences,” Says David Coletto, Abacus Data

Among these figures, a few points stand out:

  • In November, 21% of undecided voters said they would vote for either the NDP (15%) or the Greens (15%). (5 percent ).
  • It is now 27 percent (NDP 19 percent, Green 8 percent ).
  • This should bother the Liberals because a weakened Conservative Party hasn’t translated into a higher Liberal vote share.
  • Younger Canadians (48 percent will vote NDP or Green), a group vital to a potential Liberal majority, are disproportionately supportive of the Greens and NDP.
  • Second, unlike in 2019, the Conservatives will not be able to rely on an optimistic base. Given that the Conservative vote share has steadily declined in recent months, from 32% to 29%, the party will need an energized base to compensate for its weakness among the general electorate.
  • The issue with that approach is that it needs people to hate the incumbents; far fewer people who are upset with Mr. Trudeau and far fewer who are actively opposed to the Liberals being voted out.
 

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