TORONTO – The political situation at the federal level is increasingly chaotic: with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has resigned, now in his last days of office, the Liberal Party is in full swing for the leadership and the other parties are already campaigning for the probable early elections, the polls are once again giving mixed results. 

In fact, until a couple of weeks ago, the Conservatives had been in a clear advantage over the Liberals for months; then, two recent polls had signaled a possible, sensational comeback with overtaking by the Liberals (read our previous article here: The “TRU-effect”: Carney’s Liberals would have more support than Poilievre’s Conservatives).

Now, two other polls reverse the situation again, but at the same time offer different scenarios: Conservatives in the lead, but Mark Carney as preferred Prime Minister.

Let’s see the first one, conducted by Leger for the National Post, online, from February 28 to March 2, among a representative sample of 1,548 Canadian adults aged 18 and older. According to the research, if a federal election were held today, 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservatives, while 30% would vote for the Liberals. Therefore, according to Leger’s survey, the Conservatives increase by five points compared to last week (35%), while the Liberals decrease by five points (35%). A spin, in short. Again according to Leger’s poll, with Mark Carney as leader, Liberal support would rise to 33% (+3), while Conservative support would be at 41%: if Carney were the Liberal leader, the Conservatives would therefore still be in the lead among Canadians’ voting preferences (the whole research is here).

The second poll, conducted by the Angus Reid Institute from February 27 to March 3 on a random sample of 2,005 adult Canadians, focuses attention on which Canadian leader voters would like as the new Prime Minister: well, 43% of Canadians believe that Mark Carney would be the most suitable personality to contrast with US President Donald Trump, compared to 34% who instead choose the conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The latter is also overtaken by Chrystia Freeland, should Justin Trudeau’s former deputy and finance minister win the race for the Liberal leadership: 36% for her, 33% for Poilievre.

Moreover, the relationship with Trump is now considered important by Canadians: one in three (34%) says that relations with the United States are one of the main issues the country must face, behind only the cost of living (49%) and healthcare (41%).

However, as regards party approval, the Angus poll finds that the Conservatives maintain an advantage over the Liberals of up to three points (40% to 37%), with Carney as Liberal leader, while the Conservatives’ advantage rises by eight points with Freeland as Liberal leader (39% to 31%) – the whole research is here.

In conclusion: contrasting data, which highlights the great uncertainty, at this particular moment, that reigns in politics in Canada.

(Graphics from Leger’s and Angus’s polls)