TORONTO – And so it resumes… the development of a new industry to unseat a government and its leadership on the basis of “data- supported” opinion that the country is being run by the wrong people pursuing agendas that the public do not support. If you are the leader at the receiving end of that perception, you are in trouble – deep.
What is that data-supported movement? If Vassy Kapelos, a CTV journalist is accurate, at least four Liberal MPs as of 24 hours after the election results in Toronto St. Paul’s have already emailed messages “encouraging Justin Trudeau to leave” – yesterday! The House of Commons has adjourned for the summer. Neither the “gang of four” nor any of their colleagues will feel the pressure of self-discipline for the next three months, when the House resumes sitting.
The CBC keeps finding pollsters and pundits to preach the doom and gloom brought on by the dissonance between the government’s agenda and the public perception of its handling of the big issues of the day. These issues are capped by housing, high cost of living, deteriorating health care, out of control immigration and excessive taxation.
If one were to consider the voters “by the numbers”, one might have added the impact of human rights (i.e.. the “hater” community) and diaspora politics influencing government responses to concerns generated by war outside our borders. Keep in mind the analysis is focused on one riding in Toronto, where the election took place on matters of significance to its residents.
Elections Canada lists 116,953 residents in St. Paul’s. Of these, three out four – 84,934 (72.6%) – are eligible [by reason of citizenship, residency and age] to vote. Of these, only 39,962 actually voted (15,555 for the CPC and 14,965 for the Libs).
Some important demographic factors, emerging from charts derived by the City of Toronto from 2021 Census data, might shed light on the by election’s outcome. More than 15,000 people self-identified as Jewish (by ethnicity and/or religion), suggesting that at least c.10,900 were voters. It is not a secret that a pre-eminent concern of theirs would be Canada’s position re the security of Israel and its actions in dealing with Hamas.
Anecdotally, a drive through the riding on Friday, before the vote, suggested that almost every Jewish residence had opted to display a blue sign. Given the difference in ballots cast for the contenders, it would seem that the government Party might have misread or miscalculated the how and which policies were foremost in the minds of at least that community.
From a religious-affiliation perspective, only Catholics at 32,796 and “other Christians”, numbering 19,590 people are a larger – numerical – community in the constituency. I’ll wager that none of these were taken into consideration by the politicos representing Trudeau and the Liberal “team” as they set up their campaign.
