TORONTO – Nearly $1,000 more per family to buy food: 2026 is shaping up to be a more expensive year for Canadians, according to the Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) realized by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab (AAL), a group of experts from several Canadian universities coordinated by Professor Sylvain Charlebois of Dalhousie University, who is the study’s lead author. According to the report, an average family of four will pay approximately $994.63 more for food in 2026 than this year. This increase, which brings total estimated annual food spending to $17,571.79 per family (from 16,577.16 in 2025), stems from a forecast of 4% to 6% food inflation for 2026.

But let’s dive into the details of the expected increases. This year, vegetable prices decreased by 0.9% and fruit prices by 1.1%, but the downward trend is not expected to continue next year, with fruit prices potentially increasing by 1-3% and vegetable prices expected to increase by 3-5%. Meat, however, is the main driver of food inflation, rising 7.2% this year and forecast to increase further by 5-7% next year. Prices are rising because cattle herds in January reached their lowest level since 1988, the report states, which also notes that drought has increased feed costs, and packaging and processing costs are also rising.

“The beef situation is problematic” says Charlebois, as reported by The Canadian Press. “I honestly do not understand why Ottawa is not looking into this”, for example by allowing more imports from countries like Australia to ease the pressure. As beef prices have risen, more buyers have shifted to chicken, which has caused prices to soar in that sector as well. The drought contributing to rising beef prices may be linked to broader climate change issues that continue to disrupt systems, says Sadaf Mollaei, a consultant on the report: she’s the Arrell Chair in the Business of Food and an Assistant Professor in the School of Hospitality, Food and Tourism Management at the University of Guelph. “Climate change – she adds, speaking to The Canadian Press – has a very significant effect on prices, and it will most likely increase the prices because of these severe climate situations that we see in places where food is produced. If there are wildfires in California, if there are droughts in parts of Canada, when the length of seasons change, it’s going to impact crop production and it’s going to impact the supply chain…”.

The report notes that prices have increased significantly this year due to weather-related issues on a range of imports, including coffee and tea, cocoa, strawberries, oranges, squash, and carrots. Seafood is expected to remain more affordable next year, with a projected price increase of 1-2%, while dairy and eggs could see increases of 2-4%. Given all these increases, restaurant prices will likely become more expensive as well, with a projected increase of 4-6%.

Another area to watch in 2026 is the impact of the Canada Grocery Code, which officially kicks in in January. According to Charlebois, the code could help reduce the leverage that grocery retailers have over their suppliers, which could contribute to greater price stability. “Bringing food processors, sellers, and traders to the table to negotiate fairly and with a positive spirit will ultimately help consumers in the long run,” the Professor argues. “2026 will be an important year in this regard…”.

To download/read the whole report, click here: PRICE_REPORT_2026

In the pic above, Professor Sylvain Charlebois (from his Twitter page @FoodProfessor): he is the lead author of the report