TORONTO – It seems that there is no contest in the race for the Liberal leadership: according to the polls, in fact, Mark Carney is the great favorite to take over from Justin Trudeau (who resigned last January 6) and is keeping the main challengers, the deputy outgoing prime minister Chrystia Freeland and outsider Karina Gould.
According to a new study by Léger (available on line here and downloadable here: Leger-x-National-Post-Federal-Politics-Jan-2025-NEW), the Canadian economist, banker and former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England now has a 40-point lead over his closest pursuer, Freeland, among Liberal Party voters: Carney is in fact leading the way with 57% support – up 30 points from earlier this month – followed by Freeland who has 17% support.
Carney is also the most popular choice for Liberal Party leadership among all Canadians, including Conservative, NDP and Bloc Québécois voters, and when it comes to US-Canada relations he is considered the best candidate to address challenges with the administration Trump.
Another survey, by Abacus (available here), reveals the same situation albeit with different numbers. Let’s see them. Carney enjoys a better overall rating among the general public – 33% positive versus 20% negative (for a net +13) – and is also viewed more favorably by current Liberal supporters. His positive image is one reason he could attract a larger pool of voters for the Liberals if he became leader. Freeland is better known but has higher negative ratings, which reduces her net impression to about -1: among liberal supporters she remains popular, but trails Carney in net favorability. Gould is less well known among Canadians: most haven’t yet formed a strong opinion about her and nearly half say they don’t know enough to comment, leaving her with lower positives than the other two.
Among Liberal supporters, Carney leads with +59 net impressions (64% positive vs. 5% negative), Freeland follows at +44 (54% positive vs. 10% negative) and Gould is at +22 with many undecided about her. The Abacus also “measured” the size of each candidate’s electoral potential: people who might consider voting for the Liberals if that candidate became leader. Carney’s numbers suggest he could increase the Liberal Party’s voter base by up to 7 points, while Freeland’s boost would be an additional 2 points.
Bottom line, the Abacus poll indicates that Mark Carney not only tops the list in terms of clear favorability among Canadians, but also has the best chance of growing the vote for current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party. While Chrystia Freeland remains well-liked within the party, her negatives among the wider electorate are higher, limiting her potential reach, and Karina Gould has, yes, room to build her profile, but is at a disadvantage because she is little known.
The other candidates for the Liberal leadership are Jaime Battiste, Frank Baylis and Ruby Dhalla but their numbers are irrelevant in the race which therefore remains “three-way”, with a clear advantage for Mark Carney. The vote is scheduled for March 9th.
In the pic at the top, Mark Carney during a meeting in Brampton, some days ago (all the pics of the three candidates are from their Twitter “X” profiles: @MarkJCarney, @cafreeland, @karinagould)
