TORONTO – Wildfires are already an emergency in Canada, with Manitoba in the grip of flames and critical situations in other provinces: but the worst could be yet to come. Seasonal forecasts, in fact, speak of a hot and dry summer in much of North America. For Canadians tired of winter temperatures, this could be great news, but for those who are already facing a new season of forest fires, it is terrible.

So, according to the experts’ forecasts – reported in an article published today by Global News – a hot and dry summer will develop, first of all, in southern British Columbia and part of Alberta, already hit last year by devastating fires. June will be the month of transition, with periods of cooler (and wetter) weather than normal that will become warmer/drier later in the month, as the trajectory of storms shifts north. Heat waves and even heat domes will be increasingly likely in July and August, which will exacerbate the drought conditions already present. And that will inevitably increase the risk of a very active fire season. Northern British Columbia will instead see closer-to-normal precipitation and temperatures.

In the Prairie provinces (Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan), spring started out cool and wet but quickly warmed up in May, leading to this start to the season with extremely intense fires. Unfortunately, fires and smoke are expected to continue to be an issue through the summer, with above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. Heat domes, which influence drought conditions, could be a major factor in weather patterns across the northwest, but their influence extends all the way to the Prairies. Rain and cooler temperatures are expected for a couple of weeks in June, which could help firefighters manage the wildfires already underway.

In Ontario and Quebec, May has been cool and unsettled across central Canada, but June will be a transition month, with temperatures near seasonal averages and frequent showers and thunderstorms, resulting in higher humidity levels that will be above normal in July and August. While daytime highs will likely remain near seasonal averages, warm and muggy nights will push averages higher and lead to a warmer-than-normal summer. Heavy showers during any daytime thunderstorms could cause localized flooding. And when these storms move into major cities like Toronto and Montreal, urban flash flooding will occur, as it did last year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also forecasting an active hurricane season, which could increase precipitation totals later in the season.

A mild summer is expected in Atlantic Canada, with frequent showers and thunderstorms. The Maritimes were spared a hurricane last year, but NOAA is predicting another busy year: up to nineteen storms and six to ten hurricanes are expected in the Atlantic. Only time will tell if any of these will head north, but residents of the Maritimes should be careful from late August into September.

For Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut, a higher probability of low pressure is expected. Areas north of the 60th parallel will experience near-seasonal or even below-seasonal temperatures, after a warmer than normal start to June, and this could limit the loss of Arctic sea ice.

Meanwhile, as we were saying, the fire emergency has already begun. In Manitoba, thousands of people have had to abandon their homes, and in Saskatchewan the number of evacuees will likely increase as forest fires continue to threaten communities and spread thick smoke into the air. Alberta and British Columbia are also already experiencing wildfires. And June has only just begun…

In the pic above, one of the wildfires currently burning in Manitoba (photo from Twitter X – @cityofwinnipeg)