TORONTO – Another poll confirms a new trend seen in recent weeks: the Liberals are closing in on the Conservatives and are now one step away from overtaking them. The poll, conducted by Nanos by telephone on March 7 on a random sample of 1,052 Canadian adults and released today, finds that the Conservatives are at 35.7%, while the Liberals have risen to 34.7% support while the NDP is stuck at 14.9%; the BQ is at 7.9%, the Greens at 3.8% and the People’s Party at 2.1%. 

The data (the whole research is available here) indicates that the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the race to replace him, combined with the deterioration of relations between Canada and the United States, have led to a dramatic shift in Canadian public opinion. Over the past four weeks, Trump’s relationship with the United States has risen to the top of the list as the most concerning issue for Canadians, overtaking voters’ fears about jobs and the economy. And the Conservatives’ near-20-point lead over the Liberals a few weeks ago has, in effect, disappeared.

Considering that the poll was conducted on March 7, when Mark Carney had not yet been elected the new Liberal leader, it is clear that the “credit” for the Liberal rise should be shared between Justin Trudeau and his decision to leave the leadership of the Liberals and the conservative Donald Trump with his continuous anti-Canada “expressions” that certainly do not do any good to the leader of its closest Canadian party, Pierre Poilievre.

Read our previous article about the “TRU” (TRUdeau-TRUmp) effect: Carney’s Liberals would have more support than Poilievre’s Conservatives

In fact, every time Trump speaks, the Canadian Liberals gain points. And the new Liberal leader, Carney, has already understood this and rub it in. “Donald Trump thinks he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer. Pierre Poilievre’s plan will leave us divided and ripe for the conquering” said Carney who also pledged that his government will maintain pressure on the United States until the Trump administration shows some “respect”.

But also this morning, Canadians woke up to another Trump social media post threatening Canada which is now “guilty” of having chosen to keep Canada’s retaliatory tariffs and other trade measures in place, particularly the 25% surcharge on Ontario’s electricity.

The trade war, then, continues and is becoming increasingly bitter: and the Canadian Liberals could benefit from it in the next federal election.

In the pic above, Donald Trump (from Twitter X – @WhiteHouse)