Canada expects exodus from Trump’s US

TORONTO – Ending birthright citizenship for those born in the U.S. whose parents were in the country illegally or temporarily; increasing security at the border; tightening enforcement of immigration laws including promised mass deportations of millions of immigrants; suspending the U.S. refugee assistance program; recognizing only male and female gender identities. 

This series of presidential executive orders signed by Donald Trump after his inauguration at the White House risks having a more disruptive effect in Canada than in the United States, according to several experts in Canadian immigration, starting with Aleks Dughman Manzur, co-executive director of the Vancouver-based Rainbow Refugee Society. Aas reported by Doughman Manzur to CBC – which dedicates a long article by senior reporter Elizabeth Thompson to the question – Canadian groups dedicated to helping LGBTQ refugees have received more than 900 requests since Trump was re-elected. The group does not yet know how many of them could apply for refugee status in Canada, fearing that Trump’s policies will fuel transphobia and put their safety at risk.

Dughman Manzur himself has stated that American citizens can simply travel to Canada and then apply for refugee status once inside the country. However, under the Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the United States, those who are not U.S. citizens or are undocumented are at risk of being turned back to the United States if they try to claim asylum at a regular border crossing. Instead, they could try to cross undetected and then hide for four days to claim asylum without being returned to the United States. And the Rainbow Refugees Society is planning to produce videos to help those who have questions about seeking asylum in Canada.

Gabriela Ramo, former president of the Canadian Bar Association’s immigration section, agrees that Trump’s executive order on gender could push some to head to Canada because “the LGBTQ community could face difficult times ahead in the United States, even if they are in states that generally support the LGBTQ community” and it will be interesting to see how Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board rules on such requests, especially for U.S. citizens. “This will test the system” Ramo said. A system that is already known to be backlogged.

Trump’s plan to deport millions of people means that some, particularly those who qualify for a Safe Third Country exception because they have family in Canada, may head to Canada. And if even a fraction of them make it to Canada and apply for asylum, it could overwhelm Canada’s already backlogged refugee intake system.

For his part, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said his department is not yet seeing a spike in people trying to enter Canada to seek asylum, but is ready. “We are prepared for every eventuality” Miller told Radio-Canada on Tuesday. “People that are coming here, if they come in an irregular fashion, that is not the right way to do so and they will be turned away subject to the Safe Third Country agreement we have with the U.S.” he said.

Government departments also say they are doing what they can to be prepared. In December, the federal government announced plans to spend $1.3 billion to improve border security, including $667.5 million for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), which patrols the Canadian side of the border, and $355.4 million for the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), which operates ports of entry. Sergeant Charles Poirier, spokesperson for the RCMP’s Eastern Region, which includes the former informal Roxham Road crossing into Canada where many of the irregular border crossings from Canada to the United States occurred last summer, says the force is ready if Canada sees an influx of people trying to cross. “We are ready at the border, and have been for the past few weeks” Poirier told CBC.

The CBSA is also working closely with Canadian and American law enforcement partners to deal with a potential emergency, Rebecca Purdy told CBC.

However, Mark Weber, president of the Customs and Immigration Union, which represents border officials, said parts of the border are already understaffed and the situation could get worse if there are cuts to public service staffing and Canada receives an influx of asylum seekers from the United States. “We’re not really ready for the volumes that could be. Worst case scenario, it’s going to be a bit of a mess…”.

In the pic above, Donald Trump signing one of the presidential executive orders (photo: Twitter X / @WhiteHouse)