TORONTO – Conservatives still ahead in Ontario, but consensus continues to decline: it is the worst nightmare for Premier Doug Ford, who has decided to go to early elections to ask for a stronger mandate than the (already strong) one he has and who risks, instead, finding himself with a weaker majority than the current one. 

The data emerges from the survey conducted online, from 4 to 6 February 2025, on a sample of 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario, by Abacus in collaboration with the Toronto Star.

Let’s get straight to the data: Ford’s Progressive Conservatives (PC) continue to lead, with 37% support among all eligible voters, therefore a slight drop – of two points – from the end of January, when the Abacus carried out the previous poll. The Ontario Liberals hold on to 19%, while the New Democrats (NDP) see a two-point gain, rising to 17%. The Greens drop to 4% (-2%), while as many as 20% of voters remain undecided. “Among committed voters – continues the Abacus explanation on the institute’s website, where the entire report can be consulted, here  – the PCs stand at 46%, a one-point decline, while the Liberals (24%) and NDP (21%, +2) remain relatively steady. Notably, when looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs gain further ground, rising to 49%, with the Liberals and NDP statistically tied (23% vs. 22%). This suggests that the PCs continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low…”.

Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in major battlefields. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they stand at 52%, dominating the Liberals (24%) and the NDP (17%). They also hold the lead in southwestern Ontario (42%) and eastern Ontario (44%). Toronto remains more competitive, with the Liberals 10 points behind the PC (30% vs 40%) and the NDP at 21%.

As for individual leaders, Premier Doug Ford’s net rating fell slightly, with 37 per cent of Ontarians having a positive view of him (down four points), while 39 per cent viewed him negatively (up two points). His net approval is now -2. Despite this, he remains the most recognized leader in the province, while his rivals continue to struggle with visibility, even if being known does not always pay off… for example, the negative aspects of Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie have increased (now at 35%, up one point) and now more and more Ontarians know about her: fewer respondents say they don’t know enough to have an opinion about her.

NDP Leader Marit Stiles sees a slight improvement, however, with her net impression rising to +1 as more voters become familiar with her. Green leader Mike Schreiner’s net impression has declined slightly (-3), although he remains the most neutral leader in the eyes of the public.

Doug Ford therefore remains well ahead of all other party leaders, although the gap has narrowed slightly in the last two weeks.

As for the issues that voters want to see discussed during the election campaign, they always remain the same: the cost of living, the unaffordability of overpriced housing, the broken healthcare system are in the first three places, while Trump’s tariffs are only in fourth. And the same thing also emerges from another survey, by Nanos, commissioned by CTV and conducted on a random sample – online and by telephone – of 904 adults in Ontario. In fact, the Nanos survey finds that 28.1% of Ontarians say health care is an important issue that will influence how they vote in this provincial election; another 21.5% believe that a good economic plan will be a factor in deciding who to vote for; , the relationship with Trump ranks only third, with 14.2% of Ontarians saying their vote will depend on that issue. Housing issues and taxes round out the Top 5 major election issues for Ontarians.

It’s possible that the decline in PCs and Ford is due to the fact that the outgoing Premier is focusing his electoral campaign on the response to the tariffs threatened by Trump, while citizens have very other things on their minds. Confirmation seems to come from the voting intentions revealed by the same Nanos survey which shows that the Progressive Conservatives are decreasing slightly, while maintaining a large advantage over the Liberals: 44.1% with a “gap” of around 16 percentage points over the Liberals, stable at 28.4%. Instead, Marit Stiles’ New Democrats increase significantly, going in a few days – according to the nightly tracking of the Nanos poll – from 15.7% to 19.9%. Are they “working”, maybe, Stiles’ announcements to provide economic support to low-and middle-income families? The answer will be in the ballotts on February 27th.

(Photo: Elections Ontario)