TORONTO – The winds of secession are blowing in Alberta, but does this worry anyone in Canada? Yes, according to a Leger poll: a majority of Canadians believe the rebel province’s threat to secede should be taken seriously. 

The research, conducted by the institute for the Association for Canadian Studies and the National Post, says that 52 per cent of Canadians believe threats should be taken seriously, a sentiment that is particularly widespread – of course – in Alberta. “A lot more Canadians than I would have expected are taking Alberta’s threat to secede seriously” said Jack Jedwab, president and CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies. “And what’s interesting is that they actually think we should take Alberta’s threat to secede more seriously than the threat of Quebec separation…”. In fact, 52 per cent of Canadians are serious about Alberta, while only 42 per cent are serious about Quebec’s threat to secede.

In recent months, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has warned that continuing what she sees as hostile federal policies toward her province would trigger an “unprecedented crisis of national unity” …and while a referendum on secession has not been held in any province since Quebec’s last attempt in 1995 (which was narrowly won by the “no” part), Smith has promised that if enough Albertans sign a petition, her government will facilitate it. What’s more, her government has proposed legislation to lower the number of signatures needed to call for a referendum.

In Alberta itself, 63 percent say the threat of secession should be taken seriously, according to Leger’s poll. The level of concern, however, is lower in the rest of the country: the thing is serious for 51% of the inhabitants of British Columbia, 54% of those in Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 46% of Quebecers. Half of Atlantic Canadians believe it is a serious threat. The same concern is not there, at least not as high, for the separatism of Quebec: this “danger” is considered serious by 47% of the population in Quebec, 45% in Ontario, 38% in British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 31% in Alberta and 32% in the Atlantic.

Finally: are Alberta and Quebec right to want to separate from Canada? For Alberta, 52% of respondents in Alberta said yes, but the percentage drops dramatically to 37% in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 34% in Quebec, 32% in Ontario and British Columbia, and 28% in Atlantic Canada. The dynamics are similar in Quebec: 51% of residents of the French-speaking province believe there are good reasons to leave Canada, but, again, support is limited elsewhere: only 20% of Atlantic Canadians believe Quebec has legitimate reasons, as do 23% of those living in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 25% in British Columbia, while support is slightly higher in Ontario (30%) and Alberta (32%).

In the pic Above, the separatist demonstration in Alberta, last Saturday, in front of the Parliament in Edmonton (photo: Twitter X – @RiseOfAlberta)