TORONTO – The Omicron wave seems to be peaking across the country, but it’s hard to predict what will happen next. This is essentially the thought of researchers and experts who are keeping a close eye on the variant of Covid-19 to understand what the next phase of the pandemic will be.
Professor Bernard Crespi, an evolutionary biologist at Simon Fraser University, said the development of the Omicron strain of Covid-19 provides clues as to what might happen. Omicron, he says, evolved to evade pre-existing immunity and reproduce at a much faster rate.
“These two factors are linked to each other because rapid spread can only really occur if the population does not have the immune defenses – said Crespi referring to the Omicron variant – and Omicron is leaving behind a higher level of natural immunity. It’s a good thing.”
The evolutionary biologist believes that “it will be more difficult for the next variant to take hold in Canada because most people, after being infected with Omicron or getting vaccinated, or a combination of both, have acquired immunity.” “Other things being equal, the next variant and the next wave are more likely to be relatively mild,” Crespi predicts.
An opinion, this one by Bernard Crespi, also shared by the Director for Europe of the World Health Organization (WHO) Hans Kluge. “This pandemic, like all other previous pandemics, will end, but it is too early to sing victory – said Dr. Kluge – probably the peak of the Omicron wave will end sooner than expected. In Malta and the UK, for example, the peak has been reached and the numbers are falling.”
Overall, Kluge says he is “optimistic” about the next developments of the Covid pandemic, specifying that “at the moment we must put in place an approach based on vaccination” and that “Omicron offers a plausible hope of stabilization and normalization with the combination of immunity and vaccination”.
Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Theresa Tam, said last week that there are positive signs that the Omicron wave is peaking and it is now time for governments to “plan to return to something that is closer to normal.”
While the ability of a new mutation to spread could be impeded due to higher levels of immunity, Crespi said there is really no good way to accurately assess virulence or the measure of the likelihood of a variant of both sending people to the hospital and killing them.
Scientists can’t predict the next variant because it depends on random events, including its mutations and where they come from, Crespi said, pointing to the high level of genetic changes in the virus in people who have weakened immune systems. “There is always the possibility that some variant capable of spreading like Omicron will manifest itself but that, in terms of hospitalization and mortality, especially among the unvaccinated it may do worse”.
