TORONTO – Federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller says Canada is still “an open country” after the Liberal government announced plans to reduce the expected number of new arrivals.
As is known, last Thursday, Miller – together with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – announced that the expected number of new permanent residents will be reduced from the 500,000 previously expected to 395,000 in 2025, with further cuts to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027 (read our article here).
In an interview with CBC‘s “The House,” the minister said people “still see a lot of hope in coming to Canada” but “not everyone can come here or can have the privilege of becoming a permanent resident and then a Canadian”. However, “Canada is an open country” Miller told host Catherine Cullen. “I think we’ve realized importantly that we have to have a managed migration system that makes sense for everyone, including newcomers that we need to set up for success”.
The new plan on immigration levels will cause the population to decline by 0.2% over the next two years, also because next year 40% of all new permanent residents will have to come “from temporary residents who are already here” Miller said last Thursday during the announcement, adding that the plan will also “reduce the housing supply gap by approximately 670,000 units” over the next few years. Real estate developers seem to confirm this prediction.
Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the impact of these cuts will be significant. “We’re going to go from almost 3.5 per cent population growth to effectively zero over the next two years. If they hit these targets, it’s going to have pretty wide-ranging impacts across the economy from things like rent and housing inflation to consumer spending in the next couple of years or so” the expert told Global News, adding that in recent years there has been an imbalance between real estate supply and “excess demand. Unlike supply, which takes years and years to reach the market, demand can be controlled almost overnight. And that’s probably what we’ll see, if Ottawa moves forward with this plan, very quickly”.
“The biggest immediate impact we’re expecting to see of reduction in immigrants as well as non-permanent residents is going to be on the rental market” said to Global News Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canada Economics at Desjardins. “We’re expecting to see pressure on rent growth is going to come off materially” said Carolyn Whitzman, a senior real estate researcher at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities, adding that Canada needs to use the next three years to bolster housing supply, particularly for those in need of housing fundamentals such as elderly people, students and newcomers. “The best-case scenario would be for the Canadian government to have a chance to stop and think about how to set housing goals for a growing and changing society. The worst-case scenario is that immigration will be seen as the magic solution to housing problems” she said. “Whether Canada accepts immigrants or not, it still has a housing supply shortage”.
Whitzman therefore cautioned against blaming immigration alone for Canada’s housing crisis: something Miller also highlighted during his comments last Thursday. “It is also undeniable that the volume of migration has contributed to affordability. But there is some nuance there” Miller said. “You can’t go around saying that all of society’s ills are caused by immigration”. And Whitzman reiterated: “It’s part of an international trend towards blaming immigrants for every social ill. The fact is that we must invest adequately in our citizens, wherever they come from”.
According to Conservative Leader, Pierre Poilievre, the federal government’s rollback of immigration targets was a “massive admission of failure,” as his party had been advocating for months to curb immigration to Canada.
