TORONTO – Canada could soon face an unprecedented situation, where population growth is driven entirely by immigration. According to the federal government’s latest Immigration Levels Plan, 2026 will mark the second consecutive year of zero population growth.
After the pandemic, Canada experienced rapid population growth, driven almost entirely by immigration, which peaked at 3.1% in 2023, well above the historical average of 1.1% since 1972. In 2024, 816,000 temporary and permanent immigrants settled in Canada, while natural growth — births minus deaths — was about 34,000 people.
Immigration has long been the main driver of Canada’s population growth: in 2000, around 148,000 immigrants arrived, while natural growth was about 110,000 people. Over the past 25 years, the gap between natural growth and growth due to immigration has simply widened. Moreover, the influx of young immigrants after the pandemic slightly lowered Canada’s median age, dropping from 41 years in 2022 to 40.3 in 2024. Last year, however, the median age rose again to 40.6 years due to the decrease in non-permanent residents — particularly international students, but also temporary workers — a move by the federal government intended to ease pressure on the housing market and services, especially healthcare. But this initiative may backfire: the housing market has cooled so much that it is now almost stagnant, with the consequent risk of reducing incentives to build new units. Additionally, as Rachel Battaglia (economist at the Royal Bank of Canada) notes in a The Canadian Press article, with slower immigration, the country can no longer rely on new workers to address labor market challenges as in past years, making it necessary to focus on greater participation of the existing population.
But which population? Dan Hiebert (Professor of Geography at the University of British Columbia) argues — also in the same article from The Canadian Press — that “natural increase in Canada is going to hit zero really soon. Maybe 2029, maybe 2030 (…) and at that point, all population growth is going to be immigration-related, like 100 per cent. It means that wherever the government of Canada, and in particular (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada), wherever it sets that immigration number at, that’s the amount the population is going to grow. So that’s historically unprecedented…”.
Furthermore, according to Professor Hiebert, with declining birth rates and rising life expectancy, the old-age dependency ratio will increase — meaning the number of people of retirement age compared to those of working age will grow. “The higher that ratio, the tougher it’s going to be to have the economy function properly. And also, especially, to have government function properly” Hiebert explains, noting that older adults continue to use social services but contribute less in taxes.
Once again, only immigrants can help salvage the situation — assuming Canada allows them to.
