TORONTO – Canada’s total fertility rate has fallen again, reaching a record low of 1.25 children per woman in 2024, according to new data released recently by Statistics Canada.
These data show a 1.6% decline in the birth rate from 2023, the first year fertility rates fell below 1.3 children per woman. From 2023 to 2024 the rate therefore dropped from 1.26 to 1.25: in 2022 it was 1.33.
Countries below that threshold of 1.3 – including Canada along with Switzerland (1.29), Luxembourg (1.25), Finland (1.25), Italy (1.18), Japan (1.15), Spain (1.12), Singapore (0.97), and South Korea (0.75) – are considered “ultra-low fertility,” according to Statistics Canada (here).
Analyzing data from Canada’s provinces and territories, nine provinces recorded record-low total fertility rates (TFR) in 2024: Nova Scotia (1.08), Prince Edward Island (1.10), Ontario (1.21), Quebec (1.34), Northwest Territories (1.39), Alberta (1.41), Manitoba (1.50), Saskatchewan (1.58), and Nunavut (2.34). However, British Columbia recorded the lowest TFR rate, with 1.02 children per woman, a slight increase from the historic low of 1.00 in 2023. Extremely low rates, well below the threshold of 2.1 children per woman, commonly referred to as “replacement fertility”, which is the minimum rate needed to maintain a stable population through births alone.
Meanwhile, the average age of mothers in Canada continues to rise, reaching an all-time high of 31.8 years in 2024, compared to 26.7 years in 1976. Those who have children, have them later and later.
The decline in fertility is affecting a broad segment of the global population. Regarding the reasons for the decline, data from a UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) survey titled “The Real Fertility Crisis” – downloadable here – and published this year highlights that “financial constraints” are the most commonly reported reason for having fewer children than planned, followed by work, housing (especially in countries like Canada, where housing prices are insane), and childcare constraints, as well as health and healthcare-related obstacles. In some countries, these problems are compounded by others, such as gender discrimination, lack of support from partners and communities, lack of access to services such as affordable education, and, more generally, pessimism about the future.
In short: for many, every year more people, starting a family is a literally impossible undertaking and, probably, until politicians understand this and intervene with measures to support (potential) families, the fertility rate will continue to decline.
Photo by ErikaWittlieb from Pixabay