TORONTO — Far from a simple decline, it is a collapse. The progressive decrease in Canadian travel to the United States since the start of Donald Trump’s second presidential term is far more significant than it initially appeared. This is according to a study by three Canadian researchers from the School of Cities at the University of Toronto, Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung and Jeff Allen, titled “How much has Canadian travel to U.S. cities declined?” and conducted as part of the “Mapping Tariffs” project, which aims to measure the consequences of Trump-era trade policies, annexation threats, and the resulting political tensions.
As the researchers themselves write, initial estimates based on border crossings from Canada into the United States (as recorded by Statistics Canada: here) suggested a decline of about 25%. However, this year-over-year border analysis does not provide the full picture, according to the researchers, who instead examined mobile phone activity in major U.S. metropolitan areas, finding a median year-over-year drop in visits of 42%.
“This means that a) border crossing data is not capturing the full drop in Canadian business and trade-related travel and b) when Canadians travel to the U.S., they are visiting fewer locations and staying for less time than they used to,” the researchers wrote.
Chapple, Jung and Allen also compiled a ranking of U.S. cities that saw the largest drop in Canadian travel, comparing 2024–25 with 2025–26. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, ranked first with a 65.4% decline. Several Florida cities—Panama City, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami, Naples and North Port—are all in the top ten, along with Yuma (Arizona), Brownsville (Texas), and San Francisco. Major tourist destinations and border cities were similarly affected, according to the mobile data.
The study suggests that as many as 50 major U.S. metropolitan areas experienced declines of 50% or more during the period analyzed. Only 3 of the 267 cities studied saw increases in Canadian travel: Portland (Oregon), Gainesville (Florida), and Cleveland (Ohio).
The researchers analyzed data from Canadian mobile devices tracked between April 2024 and March 2026. To count as a trip, a phone had to be detected in Canada, then in the United States, and then back in Canada. So, unlike border-crossing statistics, this data also accounts for freight movement, the researchers explained, meaning the study also highlights a decline in such traffic since the start of the “tariff war”.
All collected data is available online at https://mappingtariffs.org/canada-us-visits
Photo by Artur Tumasjan on Unsplash
