TORONTO – Keep the diplomatic channel open as Russia’s aggression continues. It is now quite clear the strategy desired by Vladimir Putin in this first week of conflict in Ukraine. The priority for the Kremlin is to achieve the pre-established goals on the ground as soon as possible, not completely closing the door to negotiations with Kiev. It remains to be seen whether this double channel – the war channel and the diplomatic one – is really kept in place for the real will to reach an agreement that provides for an immediate ceasefire, or – a thesis now supported by the vast majority of analysts – that this is just a façade move, a strategic diversion without any chance of success, a simple corollary to Putin’s real goal, that is, to continue his project of invasion of Ukraine.
In this context, NATO and the countries of the European Union are in a stalemate. The international community has played the only real card it had in hand, that of economic and financial sanctions, the effectiveness of which remains a big question mark.
In particular, the ambiguous position of China, which seems to be playing this game on two tables, threatens to undermine the strategy of the United States and its allies. But we repeat, right now NATO’s room for manoeuvre is really limited. Excluding a priori a possible armed intervention and the involvement of its troops in Ukrainian territory, the power of persuasion towards Moscow remains very limited.
The tenacious resistance of the Ukrainian army and people was able to slow down the advance of the Russians, who according to the forecasts of the eve were supposed to conquer the capital in Kiev in a couple of days. But with the passage of time, the disproportion of the forces in the field is destined to increase and the outcome of the conflict seems obvious. So in this next phase diplomacy would come back into play, also because the real difficulty for Putin is not so much the conflict itself, but the next step, that of the occupation of a country that will not accept the presence of the Russians.
According to what has been reported by numerous European media, Putin would be ready to reinstall in Kiev Viktor Yanukovych, former Ukrainian president from 2010 to 2014, deposed after the 2014 revolution and always considered pro-Putin.
On his shoulders are numerous convictions for corruption and for the way he carried out the repression in the squares in 2014 before fleeing to Moscow.
Meanwhile, as the days go by, the pressure in the main Ukrainian cities increases. The 60-kilometer-long Russian military convoy is now at the gates of Kiev, numerous towns in the south of the country are under the control of the Russian occupier while the civilian casualty count increases.
According to the Ukrainian health authorities, the death toll among the population has reached 2 thousand, a figure that highlights how those who believed in a lightning war without too much bloodshed, with a quick overthrow of President Zelensky were very wrong.
