Ontario, 92 more dead. And hospitalizations drop. Are the numbers reliable?

TORONTO – Another 92 deaths, bringing the total from the beginning to 11,160. The number of deaths recorded today in Ontario is only lower than that of January 15, 2021, when the victims were 100. A figure in stark contrast to that of hospitalizations, which fell today: patients in the hospitals of the province are now 4,016, down sharply from 4,132 a week ago.

And almost half are, in fact, asymptomatic: 56% of patients with Covid-19 were hospitalized due to the virus while 44% were hospitalized for other reasons and only found out in the hospital to be positive.

The number of beds occupied in intensive care is 608, also down (compared to 626 yesterday) and divided in half between vaccinated and unvaccinated: 50% and 50%. In the case of ICUs, 83% of patients with Covid-19 were hospitalized due to the virus and 17% were hospitalized for other conditions but tested positive.

As for infections, 5,368 were recorded today but the number is far less than the real total due to the limitation of access to tests only to “at risk” categories. The only reliable data, in terms of infections, is the positivity rate: with 5,368 cases out of 33,687 tests processed, the positivity rate is 14.1%, the lowest in over a month.

Dr Eileen de Villa, Toronto Medical Officer of Health, said there are signs that transmission in the community is decreasing after the spread of the more infectious variant, the Omicron, caused explosive growth in the province.

“We are seeing some indicators that things are improving a bit, wastewater surveillance is one of them. We have seen some drops in the past few weeks,” said the doctor, adding that “the overall number of outbreaks as well. confirmed active in the various contexts that exist in the city are starting to decrease “.

Of today’s cases, 891 concerned Toronto, 765 the Peel region and 339 the York region and then: Ottawa 322, Simcoe-Muskoka 322, Halton 266, Durham 257, Niagara 314, Waterloo 204 and Hamilton 202. Four more units of public health have recorded more than 100 infections. The active and known cases throughout the province are now 56,929, with a notable decrease from the 61,566 of yesterday.

A somewhat comforting figure, the latter, which confirms the trend of the last few days. But three doubts remain: 1) given the limitation of access to tests, how close is the total number of cases still active to reality? 2) why is the number of deaths – and there is no escaping that – still so high? 3) given that the decline in hospitalizations is the result of the balance, in terms of beds, between discharged (or deceased?) patients and new patients, is it possible that this decline is due to the high number of deaths?

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay